IEA Outlook Reinforces Syrah's First-Mover Advantage in US Anode Markets

More than US$300 billion of annual downstream production outside China could be at risk if battery-grade graphite exports from China were disrupted, according to the International Energy Agency's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026. Graphite, the largest component of a lithium-ion battery by mass, is a critical material for electric vehicles, energy storage systems, data centres, defence applications and advanced manufacturing. The International Energy Agency forecasts demand for graphite to double by 2040 as electrification accelerates around the world[1].

China currently controls more than 90% of global battery-grade graphite production and processing capacity, dominates graphite anode manufacturing, and supplies the overwhelming majority of the world's graphite used in lithium-ion batteries.

In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the IEA considered the question - what happens if graphite trade from China is fully disrupted?

According to the IEA, a complete disruption to battery-grade graphite trade from China would place more than US$300 billion of annual downstream production outside China at risk. More than 85% of the exposure is accounted for by electric vehicle manufacturing as electric vehicle batteries cannot be produced without reliable access to graphite anode materials.

US Government trade policy developments continue to focus on reducing dependence on Chinese critical minerals supply chains, with graphite identified as a strategic material. The US Government is highly incentivised to develop and support domestic anode manufacturing capability for unfettered access to critical industrial inputs, and to protect the US market from China trade practices.

Syrah has a clear advantage in natural graphite and active anode material markets, as the integrated first-mover for commercial-scale supply outside China. No other company today has both an operating graphite mine and integration with a fully operational, commercial-scale AAM facility, positioned to supply into the US domestic battery manufacturing market. Syrah believes this will deliver advantage, particularly considering that other new projects have long lead times and very significant capital requirements.

[1] Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026.